With the albatross of a credit card security breach still hanging around its neck, it is no wonder that retail giant Target (NYSE: TGT) is out of favor on Wall Street.  #-ad_banner-#In just the past week we’ve seen Cowen & Co.’s Consumer Tracking Survey report “meaningful decreases” in customer satisfaction. And Standard & Poor’s lowered the company’s credit rating a notch to A. But the charts tell a different story, and it is a good one.  We can attribute the February rally, following weak fourth-quarter results, to excessive pessimism. The news was bad, but not… Read More

With the albatross of a credit card security breach still hanging around its neck, it is no wonder that retail giant Target (NYSE: TGT) is out of favor on Wall Street.  #-ad_banner-#In just the past week we’ve seen Cowen & Co.’s Consumer Tracking Survey report “meaningful decreases” in customer satisfaction. And Standard & Poor’s lowered the company’s credit rating a notch to A. But the charts tell a different story, and it is a good one.  We can attribute the February rally, following weak fourth-quarter results, to excessive pessimism. The news was bad, but not as bad as expected, and shares soared. And now after a four-week slide, it looks as if TGT is ready to break out again. (My colleague Marshall Hargrave made a similar call in January.) The February rally pushed the stock above the 50-day moving average for the first time since the data breach was reported in December. And the March pullback found support back at the moving average in what chart watchers call a successful test of the initial breakout. Johnny-come-lately bulls had a second chance to buy — and they took it. On-balance volume, which keeps track… Read More

While the broad stock market keeps hope alive for the bulls, the financial sector is not pulling its weight. And within the group, stock and commodity exchanges are not only lagging but are starting to break down. The IntercontinentalExchange Group (NYSE: ICE) appears to have peaked in early January, shortly after completing its acquisition of NYSE Euronext in November. After a steep drop in January and a rebound in February, ICE looks ready to fall some more. #-ad_banner-#On the charts, the most important feature now under attack is the rising trendline from December 2012. That was just after… Read More

While the broad stock market keeps hope alive for the bulls, the financial sector is not pulling its weight. And within the group, stock and commodity exchanges are not only lagging but are starting to break down. The IntercontinentalExchange Group (NYSE: ICE) appears to have peaked in early January, shortly after completing its acquisition of NYSE Euronext in November. After a steep drop in January and a rebound in February, ICE looks ready to fall some more. #-ad_banner-#On the charts, the most important feature now under attack is the rising trendline from December 2012. That was just after the NYSE Euronext merger was announced, and the stock found its ultimate low within a week’s time. It then embarked on a one-year rally taking it from roughly $123 to $229, which is no slouch in anyone’s book.   The line was tested in January and did provide support. However, the bounce was short-lived as ICE failed to move back above its 50-day moving average. And now it is once again testing the trendline and even traded marginally below it Thursday. Relative performance versus the market is clearly lagging. And momentum indicators have flattened out to tell us the power… Read More

As we all know, the goal of trading is to make money. But sometimes traders think like analysts, and being right about a market’s direction overshadows the primary directive — making money. So when the stock market gives us fits and starts, and crosscurrents like emerging markets and the Federal Reserve make equities treacherous, it makes sense to look for other opportunities.#-ad_banner-# As they say, there is always a bull market somewhere, and right now, it looks as if the Japanese yen is in the early stages of one. And for those who cannot or prefer not to… Read More

As we all know, the goal of trading is to make money. But sometimes traders think like analysts, and being right about a market’s direction overshadows the primary directive — making money. So when the stock market gives us fits and starts, and crosscurrents like emerging markets and the Federal Reserve make equities treacherous, it makes sense to look for other opportunities.#-ad_banner-# As they say, there is always a bull market somewhere, and right now, it looks as if the Japanese yen is in the early stages of one. And for those who cannot or prefer not to trade spot currencies or futures, the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: FXY) provides a liquid way to play. I will leave the fundamentals of the Japanese economy to others to analyze. From a charting point of view, there is plenty to like, and given the yen’s status as a safe-haven currency, the turmoil in emerging markets and volatility domestically add additional luster. The analysis is rather simple. After a two-year bear market in which FXY fell from $130 to a low of $92.75 at the end of last year, technical indicators are looking up. For example, on the weekly chart,… Read More

Investing can be exciting, but most of the time, the real winners are more staid if not outright boring. After all, Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) selling electric cars is fun. Bonds are for widows and orphans (or so the conventional wisdom goes).#-ad_banner-# If you like making money, whether in the form of capital gains or dividends, then I have a boring stock for you. Actually, it is a closed-end fund, but it pays a nice dividend and just broke out from a technical basing pattern. The Nuveen Quality Preferred Income Fund (NYSE: JTP) invests primarily in preferred… Read More

Investing can be exciting, but most of the time, the real winners are more staid if not outright boring. After all, Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) selling electric cars is fun. Bonds are for widows and orphans (or so the conventional wisdom goes).#-ad_banner-# If you like making money, whether in the form of capital gains or dividends, then I have a boring stock for you. Actually, it is a closed-end fund, but it pays a nice dividend and just broke out from a technical basing pattern. The Nuveen Quality Preferred Income Fund (NYSE: JTP) invests primarily in preferred stocks, and it has most of the characteristics I like to see in a stock or fund. No doubt, income-producing investments such as Treasury bonds and utility stocks were out of favor for much of the past year. Between May and August of last year, JTP shed more than 20%. But since August, trading has taken place in a range. Chart watchers call that a base, and the longer it lasts, the longer the rally should last if and when it finally breaks out. That breakout happened in JTP earlier this week and on nice volume. The past… Read More

There has been a lot of strong commentary this month about gold and gold stocks. Major firms are downgrading their outlooks while financial headlines are rife with calls that the bottom is in. Which is it?#-ad_banner-# I agree more with the latter than the former. Let’s say for now that the bottom really is in. Which stocks should be on your watch list, if not already in your portfolio, to take advantage of the early rallies? Working strictly from the technical side, this is what I want to see in a nutshell. I want stocks that have broken… Read More

There has been a lot of strong commentary this month about gold and gold stocks. Major firms are downgrading their outlooks while financial headlines are rife with calls that the bottom is in. Which is it?#-ad_banner-# I agree more with the latter than the former. Let’s say for now that the bottom really is in. Which stocks should be on your watch list, if not already in your portfolio, to take advantage of the early rallies? Working strictly from the technical side, this is what I want to see in a nutshell. I want stocks that have broken out on a relative basis versus the sector. In other words, I want stocks that have already shown technical strength, and therefore, greater demand from investors, even if their charts seem not quite ripe on an absolute basis. Should gold stocks as a group get moving to the upside, these “in demand” stocks should outperform. We have to start with the sector itself and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) as its proxy. It is no secret that this ETF suffered a steep bear market over the past two-plus years. The latest “proof” was a lower low set… Read More

One thing about the stock market is that it is never boring.#-ad_banner-# Just last month, casino operator Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) broke down below a rising trendline, and within days it changed its mind. This week, the stock not only moved higher to break out from a bullish flag pattern, but it is once again challenging all-time highs. With Lady Luck smiling on Wynn once again, it is time to buy this recovered sector and WYNN in particular. Last month’s false breakdown below both the rising July trendline and the 50-day moving average did indeed look bearish. After all, the… Read More

One thing about the stock market is that it is never boring.#-ad_banner-# Just last month, casino operator Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) broke down below a rising trendline, and within days it changed its mind. This week, the stock not only moved higher to break out from a bullish flag pattern, but it is once again challenging all-time highs. With Lady Luck smiling on Wynn once again, it is time to buy this recovered sector and WYNN in particular. Last month’s false breakdown below both the rising July trendline and the 50-day moving average did indeed look bearish. After all, the stock already failed at resistance supplied by its all-time highs set by the 2007 and 2011 peaks. And with momentum indicators also heading south, things did not look so good. But two days after its breakdown, WYNN suddenly surged with exceptionally heavy volume. It also set a low in place that helped define a newly emerging and bullish flag pattern. Flags are simply countertrend moves that usually provide a period of rest in a rally. If and when the upper border is pierced, the buy signal is triggered as the bulls are back in control. That breakout arguably… Read More

With the recent decline in interest rates thanks to a strong bond market, dividend stocks are back in favor. Sectors that do well when bonds rally are setting up for a nice move higher. HCP (NYSE: HCP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages health care properties. I am not big on trying to figure out what stocks will do well under the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) — I’d rather look for stocks with charts that signal they are ready to go higher. With a generous 4.9% dividend yield and improving technical indicators, HCP is… Read More

With the recent decline in interest rates thanks to a strong bond market, dividend stocks are back in favor. Sectors that do well when bonds rally are setting up for a nice move higher. HCP (NYSE: HCP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages health care properties. I am not big on trying to figure out what stocks will do well under the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) — I’d rather look for stocks with charts that signal they are ready to go higher. With a generous 4.9% dividend yield and improving technical indicators, HCP is indeed set up for price gains.#-ad_banner-# As a group, stocks offering big dividends peaked in May when the bond market began to fall. At the time, the Fed first hinted that it was considering the tapering of its bond buying program. Utilities, REITs, housing and many consumer staples stocks headed lower as traders thought interest rates would rise. Now that tapering seems to be off the table for a few months, dividend-paying stocks have regained favor. HCP in particular bottomed in early October and has been moving higher ever since. On Oct. 3, there was a management shake-up, and the… Read More