International Investing

While the United States, China and Japan duke it out for the top three economic slots in the global economy, Germany has settled in as number four. And from where investment pros sit in Bonn, that’s a pretty nice place to be. While China wrestles with possible bubbles, Japan tackles deflation and the United States frets about its government spending, Germany has spent much of the last few years away from the headlines. But behind the scenes, the country is undergoing a powerful export-led transformation that should catch… Read More

While the United States, China and Japan duke it out for the top three economic slots in the global economy, Germany has settled in as number four. And from where investment pros sit in Bonn, that’s a pretty nice place to be. While China wrestles with possible bubbles, Japan tackles deflation and the United States frets about its government spending, Germany has spent much of the last few years away from the headlines. But behind the scenes, the country is undergoing a powerful export-led transformation that should catch the attention of investors here in the United States as well. According to just-released data from Germany’s Federal Statistics Bureau, German exports are currently rising at a +25% to +30% clip compared to a year ago. That’s a remarkable feat when considering that most of its major trading partners appear too sickly to absorb all that trade. The export surge is due to a bit of methodical planning and a bit of serendipity. To be sure, German policy planners have always made sure that business conditions remain favorable by providing a very strong economic and trade infrastructure. Read More

For Japan, the hits keep on coming. Just last week, China knocked the country off its perch as the world’s second-largest economy, dealing a sharp blow to national pride. But this week’s news is even more sobering. The Japanese Yen is surging to a 15-year high of around 85 yen to the U.S. Dollar. Why the sharp recent move? Because the U.S. Federal Reserve has recently hinted that it may start to resume “quantitative easing,” whereby it prints money to inject funds into the financial system and spur banks to lend at greater… Read More

For Japan, the hits keep on coming. Just last week, China knocked the country off its perch as the world’s second-largest economy, dealing a sharp blow to national pride. But this week’s news is even more sobering. The Japanese Yen is surging to a 15-year high of around 85 yen to the U.S. Dollar. Why the sharp recent move? Because the U.S. Federal Reserve has recently hinted that it may start to resume “quantitative easing,” whereby it prints money to inject funds into the financial system and spur banks to lend at greater volumes. As that move potentially pushes up inflationary pressures down the road, the dollar weakens. For a country like Japan that perennially struggles to boost domestic consumption and instead relies on its major exporters, this could lead to real pain. First, its exports are quickly becoming less competitive. Second, any profits that are associated with exports will shrink at the rate that the currency is strengthening. This could not come at a worse time — Japan is wrestling with a rapidly aging workforce and surging government debt (which is far higher… Read More

“Moving to the sidelines.” That’s a Wall Street euphemism for “we’re not sure what to make of this stock.” And that’s just what Wall Street analysts did as a group on Thursday, uniformly cutting their rating on marketing firm Vistaprint (Nasdaq: VPRT) to “hold” or “neutral”. Analysts thought the stock… Read More

If the BP (NYSE: BP) saga is a tale of three acts, Act One will soon be complete. The company’s leaking well is almost capped, new management is in place and a plan is emerging that will help cover recent costs and make sure the balance sheet doesn’t collapse. Act Two, which will play out during the next 18 months, will involve implementing the turnaround plan. And Act Three, which we’ll likely see in 2012, will be a new, smaller, post-crisis BP that is once… Read More

If the BP (NYSE: BP) saga is a tale of three acts, Act One will soon be complete. The company’s leaking well is almost capped, new management is in place and a plan is emerging that will help cover recent costs and make sure the balance sheet doesn’t collapse. Act Two, which will play out during the next 18 months, will involve implementing the turnaround plan. And Act Three, which we’ll likely see in 2012, will be a new, smaller, post-crisis BP that is once again valued on future profits and not simply a rough guess of assets and liabilities. BP’s debt/cash flow balancing act On its second-quarter conference call, BP management laid out plans to cover the spill’s costs by taking out a $32 billion charge. In our initial assessment back in early June, we assumed that costs would be less, in the $10 to $20 billion range. After our initial analysis, shares fell even further as concerns grew that liabilities would break the company. Shares have recently rallied to… Read More

There are dozens of very large ships plying the global waters that do nothing but ferry dry goods. Think of coal, grain, steel and other such bulk goods. When major nations actively trade these goods, bulk ships are in hot demand and the cost to lease them can surge. But… Read More