I have been warning readers of my premium Mastering the Markets service for the past few weeks that mid-September looks to get ugly unless you plan on being short the market — which is my plan. Below is my time-cycle forecast for the S&P 500 for the next few weeks: This coming week looks to be a shorting opportunity. I will be selling into an expected rally that will last only until either the end of this week or early next week. Then, as you can see, if the time-cycle… Read More

I have been warning readers of my premium Mastering the Markets service for the past few weeks that mid-September looks to get ugly unless you plan on being short the market — which is my plan. Below is my time-cycle forecast for the S&P 500 for the next few weeks: This coming week looks to be a shorting opportunity. I will be selling into an expected rally that will last only until either the end of this week or early next week. Then, as you can see, if the time-cycle forecast proves to be correct, the market could begin a stair-step move from about 1120 to near 1020 — a decent opportunity to make money if the trend holds. #-ad_banner-#I prefer to buy inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in falling markets, rather than shorting individual stocks. The reason is entirely due to risk. A positive exogenous event can occur at any time with any individual company that could push it from a declining trend to a spike higher. It is the risk of these potential upward spikes that put more risk on an individual short trade than I… Read More

As the U.S. economy tries to sputter back to life, one important fact is increasingly clear: any rebound is likely to be muted as the country wrestles with persistently high unemployment and confidence-sapping budget deficits. That’s why it’s more important than ever to… Read More

The rumblings about a possible double-dip recession have begun. Investors are understandably worried about such a possibility, not only because it may happen, but because it would be unprecedented for the current generation of market participants. First, don’t panic. We aren’t there yet. What you can do,… Read More

It’s coming. You know it is. Another recession. A “correction.” A one-day meltdown. Whatever you call it, the stock market is a fickle goddess to those who hear her siren’s call. Question is, how secure do you feel about being prepared for when —… Read More

With Wednesday’s sharp rally, investors that like to short stocks were tripping over each other to get to the exit. And to unwind a short holding, they had to buy back shares of the companies in which they’ve made a negative bet, known as… Read More

Ever notice how the simplest task is more complicated these days? Like buying cereal at the grocery store? I just popped in to get a box of Cheerios and was confronted with no less than 6 different varieties: honey, frosted, chocolate, multi-grain, banana nut and oat clusters. Read More

Heading into the trading week, we expected to see a flurry of economic releases that would have an outsized impact on the stock market this week. [See: 4 Can’t-Miss Items for Investors to Watch Next Week] Those data points are now rolling in, but… Read More

For years, market strategists have tried to explain that investor bullishness is bad for future stock returns, and when investors are very bearish, it’s a great time to buy. They’re right. I’ve gone over 25 years of data compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), and found this investing maxim to be remarkably accurate. And guess what? The AAII’s weekly survey has just revealed another low in investor sentiment. First, let’s take a look at what happened in the late 1980s when investors had just come out of a sharp market crash (the infamous… Read More

For years, market strategists have tried to explain that investor bullishness is bad for future stock returns, and when investors are very bearish, it’s a great time to buy. They’re right. I’ve gone over 25 years of data compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), and found this investing maxim to be remarkably accurate. And guess what? The AAII’s weekly survey has just revealed another low in investor sentiment. First, let’s take a look at what happened in the late 1980s when investors had just come out of a sharp market crash (the infamous Black Friday of October, 1987) and sentiment was fairly bearish. This table shows the annual low point for investor sentiment from 1987 through 1993 and how the market subsequently fared. Throughout this period, investors were very bearish, and less than one in five investors considered themselves to be bullish. Those lonely bulls sure made some money, though. Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish 1-Mo. Return 6-Mo. Return 1-Year Return 2-Year Return 3-Year Return 12/11/87 23.0% 45.0% 32.0% +3% +9% +18% +48% +40% 07/22/88 16.0% 58.0% 26.0% -1% +9% +30% +34% +45% 03/10/89 13.0%… Read More

Heading off early next week ahead of the Labor Day weekend? So are many others, including Wall Street traders. As they leave their trading desks, trading volumes can get awfully light. That makes the markets vulnerable — on the upside or the downside — to any news items that are unexpected. With a dearth of corporate news but a boatload of economic releases next week, investors need to stay vigilant. Here’s a look at four key items to watch: 1) On Tuesday, August 30th, we’ll get the latest reading from the monthly Case-Shiller home… Read More

Heading off early next week ahead of the Labor Day weekend? So are many others, including Wall Street traders. As they leave their trading desks, trading volumes can get awfully light. That makes the markets vulnerable — on the upside or the downside — to any news items that are unexpected. With a dearth of corporate news but a boatload of economic releases next week, investors need to stay vigilant. Here’s a look at four key items to watch: 1) On Tuesday, August 30th, we’ll get the latest reading from the monthly Case-Shiller home price index. The data reflects June prices, and this report is coming off a surprisingly robust tally the prior month that showed a +4.6% gain in home prices in May. In fact, this report has looked a tad better for 15 straight months, after bottoming with an -18% drop in February, 2009. Many of those ensuing months were still negative, but less so as time passed. Now, with a string of three straight positive readings, can we keep it up? Any reading above +5.0% would be a real positive for the markets and could boost housing stocks. Then again,… Read More

It’s easy to trot out legendary investor Peter Lynch’s name every time you find an undervalued fast-growing company, but the truth is that Lynch had many different criteria that had to be met before he would purchase a stock. I always keep certain Peter Lynch criteria in… Read More